This year, demand for Cuban cigars fell by 15 percent, and as a result, Cuba has decided to reduce the amount of land allotted to growing tobacco by 30 percent. Translating those percentages into units, that means only 49,000 acres will be available to grow next year’s tobacco crop, down from 70,000 acres this year, according to Cuba’s National Statistics Office.

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The global recession and the institution of smoking bans in more places around the world are to blame for the declines.

Sales of Cuba’s famed cigar brands — those same brands confiscated by the original Cuban tobacco families in the sixties including Punch, Partagas, and others — constitute 70 percent of sales in the world’s premium cigar market. The U.S., of course, is left out of this equation because of the long-standing trade embargo levied against Cuba. But what if America could buy and sell cigars to Cuba again?

It stands to wager that if ⎯ or rather, when ⎯ the trade embargo is lifted, and the U.S. can then legally buy and sell genuine Cuban leaf cigars, demand will go up again, recession or no recession. U.S. and Cuban consumers alike will then have their choice of cigars manufactured by Habanos S.A. or U.S. concerns.

It has been said that land is the basis of all wealth, and that‘s why before any kind of trade normalization can happen, Cuba has to agree to allow fair access to genuine Cuba tobacco leaf to the U.S. This, coupled with movement towards a free market economy, will instill more confidence in leaders that the embargo should be lift. It may also have the effect of helping keep farmers and their families working in Cuba, and pave the way for fair restitution to the exiled Cuban tobacco families.